Just How To identify value in your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the very best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and the way they supply a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, due to the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not appear to be much between them but as we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by anyone bookmaker as they would in theory be certain to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage will be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that could give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary to the extent you can locate a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. It means that you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and Visit Good Tutorials provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you will make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there is no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the most effective odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so may very well be the very best value, but this is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you assess the prospects of each outcome is not due to this article. It deserves more detailed treatment than may be given here where we are coping with bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the most effective odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it really is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include two of the three possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It's very seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is a great one to show how to use percentages.
It's generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the very best odds. All you'll need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. For this you need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a significant part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not appear to be much between them but as we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by anyone bookmaker as they would in theory be certain to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage will be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that could give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary to the extent you can locate a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. It means that you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and Visit Good Tutorials provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you will make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there is no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the most effective odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so may very well be the very best value, but this is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you assess the prospects of each outcome is not due to this article. It deserves more detailed treatment than may be given here where we are coping with bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the most effective odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it really is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include two of the three possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It's very seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is a great one to show how to use percentages.
It's generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the very best odds. All you'll need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. For this you need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a significant part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.