The Best Way To identify value in your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the very best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and the way they give a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, because of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short within any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or even the draw would produce an overall of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not seem to be much between them but as we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by anyone bookmaker as they would in theory be sure to lose on the event, they can be "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that might provide them with a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary to the extent which you can locate a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. It means that you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you is likely to make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there's no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the very best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so might be the best value, but this is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you assess the chances of each outcome isn't due to this article. It deserves more in depth treatment than can be given here where we have been working with bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the top odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should be given to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There can be occasions when it truly is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include 2 of the 3 possible outcomes so it's necessary to pinshape.com allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It is extremely seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is a great one to show the way to use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. For this you will need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - as well as perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or even the draw would produce an overall of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not seem to be much between them but as we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by anyone bookmaker as they would in theory be sure to lose on the event, they can be "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that might provide them with a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary to the extent which you can locate a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. It means that you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you is likely to make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there's no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the very best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so might be the best value, but this is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you assess the chances of each outcome isn't due to this article. It deserves more in depth treatment than can be given here where we have been working with bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the top odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should be given to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There can be occasions when it truly is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include 2 of the 3 possible outcomes so it's necessary to pinshape.com allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It is extremely seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is a great one to show the way to use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. For this you will need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - as well as perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.