The Way To identify value within your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the best Bet Soccer visit website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and how they give a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, because of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce an overall of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not seem to be much between them but whenever we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by anyone bookmaker as they'd in theory be sure to lose on the event, they're "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers may vary to the extent that you may locate a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you will make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the aforementioned data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning will be the best price, there is absolutely no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the top odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so could possibly be the best value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you study the probability of each outcome isn't for this article. It deserves more complete treatment than can be given here where we are coping with bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the most effective odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should be given to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include two of the three possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It is quite seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises but the illustration is a great one to show how exactly to use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the best odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. For this you will need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and possibly now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce an overall of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not seem to be much between them but whenever we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by anyone bookmaker as they'd in theory be sure to lose on the event, they're "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers may vary to the extent that you may locate a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you will make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the aforementioned data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning will be the best price, there is absolutely no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the top odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so could possibly be the best value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you study the probability of each outcome isn't for this article. It deserves more complete treatment than can be given here where we are coping with bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the most effective odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should be given to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include two of the three possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It is quite seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises but the illustration is a great one to show how exactly to use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the best odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. For this you will need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and possibly now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.