'Satta' market backs BJP to sweep all four semi-final states as illegal betting goes into overdrive
Short on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and long on the Congress is the tale of the 'satta' tape.
Punters involved in illegal betting on the outcome of the current round of Assembly elections say it's saffron all the way in Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Punters aren't too hot on the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the Capital either.
The illegal betting market has gone into overdrive as poll process builds up to results.
In satta-speak, the rates are "open" now, as a Mail Today investigation in the epicentre of betting has found out.
Hapur in western Uttar Pradesh, about 60km from Delhi, is the den of illegal betting. A Mail Today team visited the City Plaza Market in Hapur, where four punters were arrested recently.
The team also visited the Futures Trading Centre of Hapur, considered one of the biggest in this region. With the help of local acquaintances, a Mail Today team met a few punters to get a sense of about what the betting market has to say about the elections.
The satta market's predictions on the poll results crystallise in the numbers that are bandied about.
"It is almost clear in all the four states. They are confident of BJP returning to power in MP and Chhattisgarh. Similarly, in Delhi and Rajasthan, BJP is stronger when compared with Congress," one punter said.
The overall odds are 80 paise on the BJP and Rs 1.25 on the Congress.
The punter explained: "If you bet one rupee on the BJP winning these states, you'll get a return of 80 paise. For the same value of money on Congress, you would get Rs 1.25."
He said that the market has just opened up and rates will change as date of counting (December 8) comes closer.
"Exit polls also tell about the mood of the political outcome and we expect that odds in favour of BJP will go up. It may become 50 paise for BJP and Rs 1.50 for Congress," he added.
The satta mood
Going by the satta mood, the betting syndicate fancies between 35 and 37 seats for the BJP in Delhi, between 129 and 131 seats in Madhya Pradesh, between 46 and 48 seats in Chhattisgarh and between 115 and 117 seats in Rajasthan.
For the Congress, the calculation reveals 23-25 seats in Delhi, 84-86 seats in MP, 41-42 seats in Chhattisgarh and 61-63 seats in Rajasthan.
Unlike the surveys, the betting syndicate is not too optimistic about AAP as it has given only 4-5 seats to the new party in the capital.
"There are many punters but they operate under four or five big players here. In May, the police arrested four punters and following that they have become cautious. Some of them have shifted their base to Delhi and its nearabouts. But businessmen here are still putting lot of money in satta through these old players," he said.
Another punter said that these big players have their networks in many big cities like Mumbai, Jaipur and others.
"People know each other in this business. Small-time players always operate under their bosses and these bosses know each other. Even if they shift their bases, they are always in touch with each other through Internet or mobile phones. To avoid police, we keep changing our contact numbers very often," he added.
The hub Punters in Hapur said that business districts in Delhi like Karol Bagh and Rajouri Garden are major betting centres.
"There are many businessmen, mainly dealing in wholesale trading, who run betting operations from their premises. Mostly they operate from first or second floor of the buildings. These are crowded areas. While the betting goes on at upper floors, they always deploy their men near shops at ground floors to keep watch on the movement of police and other dangers," said one punter.
The building in Hapur, UP, where four punters were arrested recently
Rajasthan
A fortnight ago, punters in Rajasthan were claiming it to be a close contest between the ruling Congress and the main Opposition, BJP, in the upcoming Assembly polls.
But now the trend has changed.
According to a leading syndicate of the satta bazar, BJP is set to clinch around 105-115 of the 200 Assembly seats in the state.
This was discernible from betting on 100 seats at the two of the biggest betting centres - Bikaner and Jaipur - on Wednesday.
On Tuesday evening too, the market showed similar sentiments. Sudhanshu Mishra/Jaipur
Madhya Pradesh
Two days after the people of Madhya Pradesh exercised their vote, the betting market in Indore is predicting a saffron win in the state.
Though the market odds were in favour of the Congress on Monday, the scenario changed totally on Wednesday. According to the new betting market odds, the BJP will retain power in the 230-seat Madhya Pradesh Assembly.
Punters are placing 70 paise for the BJP clinching a win while for the Congress the rate is Rs 1. Anup Dutta/Bhopal
Maharashtra
If bookies in Mumbai are to be believed, the Congress will only be able to retain Mizoram after the Assembly polls.
According to the latest betting rates, the BJP is set to defeat the Congress in Delhi.
Bookies expect the party to gain around 28 seats. So if you bet on the BJP gaining 28 seats, you would get Rs 1.24 paise for every rupee you bet on it.
Rajasthan is the second state where the Congress is likely to suffer a whammy. Bookies expect the BJP to gain 101 seats, and if you bet on it they are offering 14 paise for every rupee. The tale is similar in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
Krishna Kumar/Mumbai
Gujarat
If the frenzied punters of the Gujarat betting market are to be believed, the dice is definitely rolling the saffron way in the upcoming Assembly polls in Rajasthan and Delhi.
"Punters in Gujarat are largely betting on Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh," a source said.
While the chance for BJP making it to Delhi has been pegged at 80 paisa, it is 90 p in Rajasthan and for Congress it is Rs 1.50 and Rs 1.25, respectively.
"The prices are often fixed with the help of opinion poll reports, campaigns, issues and stature of candidates," the source said, adding that the bookies also have their own ground-level sources.
Krishna Kumar/Mumbai